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Why Ethiopia’s Massive Nile Dam Project Has Spilled Over Into Regional Tensions_我的网站

A | Under construction since 2011, the GERD project is one of the largest public infrastructure projects in Ethiopia, and will be the biggest hydroelectric power plant on the African continent once finished next year.,The third phase of the filling of a massive reservoir, capable of holding up to 74 billion cubic meters of water, was completed this week, with two of the dam’s planned 16 turbines now operational. When construction is finished, the dam will be capable of generating some 6,000 megawatts of power – more than double the average output of a WER-1000 nuclear reactor.,AfricaWATCH Water Pour Over Spillway on Ethiopia’s GERD Hydroelectric Dam After Finishing Third FillingYesterday, 22:33 GMT,In a ceremony inaugurating the project on Friday, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stressed that the dam was Ethiopia’s “gift,” and that it was “Ethiopia’s responsibility to use it” together with the other two Nile Basin countries - Egypt and Sudan.,“PM @AbiyAhmedAli reiterated that Ethiopia is working to ensure the benefits of the lower basin countries, saying that our Abbay River [Ethiopia’s term for the Blue Nile, one of the two major tributaries of the Nile] takes what it deserves while passing on what others deserve,” the prime minister’s office tweeted following the ceremony.,PM @AbiyAhmedAli reiterated that Ethiopia is working to ensure the benefits of the lower basin countries, saying that our Abbay River takes what it deserves while passing on what others deserve. He also congratulated all Africans on this milestone. (2/2) pic.twitter.com/Be9WtrHczO— Office of the Prime Minister - Ethiopia (@PMEthiopia) August 12, 2022,Just Deserts,The question of which country “deserves” what has been the subject of considerable consternation and debate between the three nations, as has the dam’s potential environmental impact, with Cairo and Khartoum fearing the filling of the 145 meter tall, 1.8 km long dam could threaten the region with droughts and floods. Last month, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry warned that Cairo would defend its interests using “all means available” at its disposal, and called on the United Nations Security Council to negotiate a legally binding agreement between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on regulating the dam’s operation. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi earlier called the GERD dispute a “red line” security issue.,Ethiopian Ambassador to Russia Alemayehu Tegenu dismissed these concerns, telling Sputnik last month that Egypt and Sudan were trying to “internationalize and politicize the dam to solve their internal affairs” and assuring that the dam “has no significant harm” for the downstream nations.,WorldEgypt, Sudan Politicising Renaissance Dam Construction, Ethiopian Diplomat Says27 July 2021, 08:23 GMT,Nile River: Giver of Life,Stretching some 6,695 km and covering over 3.3 million square km, the Nile is the longest river in the world, and has played a significant role in regional civilizational development going back to the Ancient Egyptians owing to the rich soil perfect for agriculture created by its annual flooding, and its use as a tool for regional river navigation. Ethiopia’s Blue Nile tributary accounts for a whopping 85 percent of the Nile’s total waters.,Egypt, which receives almost no rainfall, relies on the Nile for more than 90 percent of its freshwater, with eastern Sudan similarly dependent on the river for its economic wellbeing and water and food security.,Legacy of Colonial Meddling,Part of the difficulty of regulating the dispute over the Nile is the lack of a regional agreement regulating the waters’ flow. Addis Ababa is not a party to the 1959 bilateral treaty between Egypt and Sudan dividing the Nile’s waters.,A separate 1929 Nile Waters Treaty between Britain and its then-puppet state of Egypt, plus the territories of what are now Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Sudan provided Cairo the right to veto infrastructure projects up the Nile if they threatened to impact the country’s interests. However, that treaty similarly didn’t apply to Ethiopia, which managed to survive as the only independent nation in Africa after the European imperialist scramble for the continent in the 19th century, and which was never consulted on the agreement’s terms.,Russia’s Position,As a strategic partner of both Ethiopia and Egypt, Russia has sought to assure the dam dispute’s peaceful and mutually amenable resolution, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicating in 2021 that Moscow would be ready to provide technical assistance for any negotiations on the matter. Russia also supports the use of the African Union platform to resolve the crisis.,Also last year, Russian Ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzia called on the three countries to stick to the terms of the 2015 Declaration of Principles on the GERD, which urged consensus in reaching an agreement on guidelines for the dam’s filling and operation, and committing Ethiopia to avoid steps which could harm its downstream neighbors. “At the same time, we note legitimate concerns of Egypt and Sudan over the possible negative impact that unconstrained functioning of the dam may produce on the populations of those countries in drought prone years,” he said.,The 2015 agreement and efforts at the African Union and UN levels mean that a baseline for a breakthrough and compromise exists. However, amid regional and global concerns about food and water security, and the threats posed by increasingly prevalent climate disasters and extreme weather events, the GERD dispute comes during a period of heightened regional and global tensions.,In 2021, Africa and Middle East intelligence analysis group Pangea-Risk warned that an all-out water war between Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan, or their proxies was becoming increasingly probable in the face of dwindling options for a mediated solution.。连续多周包揽全球开源模型调用量排名前两席8月13日凌晨，杭州深度求索人工智能基础技术研究有限公司（DeepSeek），又悄悄搞了个大动作——DeepSeek V4 Pro正式版发布。此前，DeepSeek V4的另一个版本Flash正式版已于7月底发布。从官方测评数据看，Pro版本能力大幅提升，多项指标已接近Anthropic Fable 5等国外顶尖闭源模型。而在十天前，另一家浙江公司阿里巴巴发布旗舰模型Qwen3.8-Max，首次亮相即进入权威评测平台LMArena综合榜Top 5。全球开源模型调用量排名中，两个浙产大模型DeepSeek与千问已连续多周包揽前两席。

B | 人工智能正成为创新浙江最鲜明的标识、最核心的支撑。

C | 而选择“开源”来加速技术迭代、构建产业生态，成为浙产大模型企业一条坚定而清晰的路径。这是企业对技术路径和商业模式的选择，也是浙江发展人工智能的战略共识。正如中国工程院院士、之江实验室主任王坚反复提及的观点：人工智能开源，正从开放源代码即“Open Source”，转为开放资源即“Open Resource”。中国开放AI模型，本质上意味着把背后的资源和机遇开放给全世界。性能做强，门槛降低“便宜的没它强，强的没它好用。

D | ”8月13日，杭州嗡嗡科技有限公司负责人刘杲劼试用了DeepSeek V4 Pro版本。他告诉记者，此前公司刚从国外模型切换到了7月底发布的DeepSeek V4 Flash版本，它在编程等工作上表现不错，费用降低了不少。这是DeepSeek和千问广受欢迎的原因：够便宜，够好用。便宜到什么程度？DeepSeek V4 Flash最近采用了分时定价机制，在空闲时段，每百万输出Token仅需4.5元人民币，即便在高峰时段，价格也仅为9元/百万输出Token。相比顶尖的国外模型，价格优势依然显著，两者在代码编写能力相差不大，官方测试数据显示仅差几个百分点。好用到什么程度？DeepSeek V4 Pro总参数1.6万亿、每次激活约490亿参数，V4 Flash总参数2840亿、激活130亿参数，两者全系开源，均支持百万Token超长上下文。Qwen3.8-Max同样如此：总参数量达2.4万亿，单次推理激活950亿参数，采用稀疏混合专家架构，支持最大1M Token的上下文窗口。这意味着开发者更方便在其上自由搭建、改造，并商业化落地。杭州电子科技大学计算机学院副院长余宙告诉记者，国内的开源大模型集中精力做了两件事——把模型性能做强，把使用门槛降低。“中小企业很难从0到1训练一个大模型。”浙江古珀医疗科技有限公司是杭州一家专注医疗大数据领域的科技企业，创始人张强说，对开发者而言，这两大开源模型提供了成本更低、性价比更高的选择，拉低了人工智能现实落地的门槛。古珀就利用开源模型Qwen3.6-35B-A3B和Qwen3.6-27B，打造了一个面向C端的医疗智能体，具有“医生分身+智能随访+慢病风险评估智能体+健康管理”等功能。

E | 截至目前，浙江累计已完成90款生成式人工智能服务备案。其中，有一些模型，就是利用千问、DeepSeek等基础大模型进行二次开发和参数调整获得的。融入全球，改写规则两个“顶流”大模型的背后，是浙江在战略层面锚定的路线。浙江省“十五五”规划纲要中六次提及“开源”，频次之高、着墨之重，前所未有。2026年省政府工作报告提出，“积极抢占人工智能发展制高点，着力营造最优开源开放生态”，将开源列为全省AI布局的核心抓手之一。7月16日，浙江省委十五届九次全会在杭州举行。全会期间进行了人工智能专题辅导授课，组织考察了国家人工智能应用中试基地（具身智能）、“魔搭社区”（杭州）开发者中心、杭州城西科创大走廊未来科技城展馆。其中，“魔搭社区”是国内最大的人工智能开源社区。

F | 魔搭社区以“模型即服务”的模式，线上汇聚全球超2900万人工智能开发者、超20万个模型，极大降低了人工智能应用创新的门槛。浙江大学人工智能学院教授、本科生院院长吴飞解释了开源的底层逻辑：“开源是开放知识与创造能力。AI技术具有先行者引领的溢出效应，需要去主动构建开源生态。”“极致性价比+开放生态”的浙产大模型，正在重写全球AI竞争的游戏规则。

G | 7月24日，AI硬件巨头英伟达创始人黄仁勋，发布了一封公开信呼吁开放模型权重。该信件将开放模型比作1980年代开源软件运动——开放权重扩大了参与AI经济的途径。初创企业、成熟企业、高校及公共机构无需从零开始训练模型，也不必为每一项任务都支付高昂的尖端模型使用费，而是可以直接基于现有的先进模型进行开发。日前，联合国人工智能问题独立国际科学小组发布报告《对人工智能带来的机遇、风险和影响的询证评估》。该报告将Qwen及DeepSeek作为全球开源AI生态代表性案例单独列出。这既是技术层面的认可，也是国际社会对中国开源治理理念的一种肯定。